As a former top diplomat for the UN, he is used to only expressing himself behind the scenes, but since the Russian invasion, Serry is now also speaking out in public. He has no other choice, he says, his connection to Ukraine is too strong. His wife is from there; he met her when he became the first Dutch ambassador in the country between 1992 and 1996. He still has a lot of contacts there. Also, his in-laws still live in Kyiv – they don’t want to abandon the president.
Until the moment war broke out, he also moderated talks between Russian and Ukrainian experts in the mutual relations. “Even the day before the Russian invasion, they thought that war was still unthinkable: the consequences for both countries would be catastrophic – which has now indeed become apparent. Both the Russians and the Ukrainians saw no rational explanation for an invasion.”
Fascist clique
Serry is clear: this is Putin’s war. But the West also has itself to blame. “We have been too naive. In his speeches, Putin has said often enough that he does not accept Ukraine as a country, but people continued to underestimate him.” At the same time, there were those vague promises about Ukrainian NATO membership. “That led to false expectations in Kyiv, and suspicion in Moscow. We see the same thing again at the EU top in Versailles, where there was no clarity about a possible EU membership for Ukraine.”
He reckons that it is of great importance that the West properly understands the situation in Ukraine. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, both Russia and Ukraine had a tough transition to a market economy. “Both countries reacted differently to the economic adversity: the Russians yearned for a strong leader, the Ukrainians were completely against that. They wanted to be like us, in the West.” This became clear in 2014, when the pro-Russian Ukraine president at the time, Yanukovych, did not want to sign the association treaty with the EU. The Ukrainians revolted; Yanukovych fled to Russia.
In Putin’s world view, this was a Western coup, in which a fascist clique had seized power. The Russian annexation of the Crimea and pro-Russian revolts in Eastern Ukraine followed. “I experienced myself how diplomatic relations deteriorated. Nevertheless, the West chose to look the other way. There was hardly any attention for the on-going conflict. We thought that this is as far as it would go, while in actual fact this was the beginning of something much bigger.”
Peace talks
What to do next? First, both countries have to reach the conclusion that to continue fighting is pointless. “We have to wait until Putin accepts that he has failed in achieving his war objectives. I think that that could take a while.”
After that, peace talks will have to yield results. The Ukrainian president Zelensky has already offered a way out. “He suggested that maybe Ukraine must recognise that it will not become a NATO member. That is bitter for the Ukrainians, but he also wants his people to be free from this war. The question is whether Putin accepts this as being enough. Other demands from him, including a complete demilitarisation of Ukraine or handing over the Crimea and the two people’s republics in the east, are a lot more sensitive.”