It’s a frequently heard argument against the Dutch government’s plans to limit the intake of international students: attracting talent from abroad is a golden opportunity to relieve pressure on the Dutch labour market, particularly in border and shrinking regions such as South Limburg. But do international graduates really go on to work in the Netherlands? “There’s been some research on the topic, but we didn’t know much about it”, says Didier Fouarge, director of ROA. That was reason enough for the research centre to dig into data collected by Statistics Netherlands (CBS). “By the way, the study wasn’t politically motivated. When we began it two years ago, the political climate was different. We primarily started studying it to support our labour market forecasts.”
But the conclusion will certainly be of interest to politicians. It turns out that a significant number of international graduates stay, and this number has been steadily increasing in recent years. For a long time, the percentage of international graduates still living in the Netherlands after four to five years hovered around 20 to 25 per cent. For the 2018-19 cohort, this number is inching towards 30 per cent. “These retention rates are only expected to rise. For more recent cohorts, we see that the percentage after one year is significantly higher, reaching 43 per cent in 2022. If this trend continues, we can expect a higher percentage after five years.”
This is economically advantageous, Fouarge explains. “Some argue that educating international students costs the country money. But the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) has previously calculated that beyond a certain retention rate, it actually generates a profit. Right now, we’re well above that rate.”
Feel less welcome
The labour market also benefits. “We see a significant number of international graduates, particularly from outside the EEA, stay in sectors such as engineering and IT, which are facing severe talent shortages”, says Fouarge. He suspects this isn’t a coincidence. “From an economic perspective, it makes sense that more people stay if job prospects are better. That said, we don’t see the same thing happening in the healthcare sector, which is also experiencing a severe shortage, so other factors are clearly at play. We haven’t researched those, but we’d like to in the future.”
Fouarge offers a possible explanation: “Other studies have shown that factors such as quality of life also play a role. I wouldn’t be surprised if the government’s right-wing agenda and the heated debate on migration and internationalisation make international students feel less welcome, which could cause retention rates to drop. But it will be a few years before we can know for sure.” This could have a negative impact on sectors already facing severe shortages. “After all, even if all international students stayed, it still wouldn’t be enough to solve the shortages.”
Convincing politicians
ROA researchers also found that after five years, fewer of the “stayers” live in border regions such as South Limburg and Twente, while their number in the Randstad region increases. “These findings may be somewhat distorted, as the CBS data don’t include cross-border workers living abroad. But it’s a pattern we see in Dutch graduates as well. Urban vibrancy is appealing, and there are more job opportunities in the big cities. For shrinking regions, it’s important to remain attractive. The Eindhoven region has Brainport as its draw; in South Limburg, the Brightlands campuses or the Einstein Telescope could play a similar role.” However, it is important that international students are introduced to these during their studies. “We’ve found that almost half leave immediately after graduation, having already made the decision to leave.”
It’s no coincidence that ROA published the study in late June, shortly after MPs submitted written questions about the internationalisation bill. “We moved up the publication date a bit. I believe that policy decisions should be based on the right data.” Fouarge presented the findings in The Hague over the summer. “Mainly to civil servants who will soon be shaping new policies, or deciding which programmes can continue to be taught in English. Convincing politicians themselves is a different matter – they’re often impervious to rational arguments.”